The New World: Trade War to Human War

 

European Political Community in Tirana, Albania on 16 May, 2025. 

 

The New World: Trade War to Human War

Deepak Razdan

Wednesday, 21 May, 2025

The New World has shifted its focus from trade war to human war, may be for an interregnum. The punishing US import tariffs which upended the world trade system are not forgotten, but are on wait.

There is an awakening about human wars that don’t seem to end, and go on and on, despite repeated pleas and pressures. There are also fears of coming wars and preparations are on to face them, should they really come.

Nearly every major country is losing patience the way the Russia-Ukraine war continues, unmindful of the vast devastation of life and property it has wreaked on a sizable part of the Earth.

The Palestinians are being bombarded by Israel no end, although the small region is fully flattened and the remaining humans there are only scavenging for food in the debris.

While efforts are on to resolve the Ukraine-Russia tangle and to urge Israel to realise the futility of escalating military action in Gaza, there are clear indications Europe including the UK fears threats to its security from Russia and is planning deterrent strategies.

As soon as the Ukraine war started, the European Union (EU) set up a European Political Community to effectively protect European stability.

A large number of non-EU nations associated with the new organization where leaders are regularly discussing a united defence of Europe and formation of a common defence force against Russia.

The UK and the Europe are ramping up their security forces and arsenal to counter any threats to their sovereignty. In every UK-EU discussion, defence is a major subject because of Russia’s aggressive postures.

The UK-EU Summit in London last Monday finalized defence cooperation as one of the key areas of the UK-EU pact. British companies will be able to get contracts from EU’s 150 billion euros defence fund.

The UK recognizes its defence priority to secure Europe and has announced plans to increase its defence expenditure up to 2.50 per cent of the GDP by 2027, or even more. The present expenditure is 2.30 per cent of the GDP.

Germany is ready to have its defence forces larger than the UK and has planned a 500 billion euro defence fund. French President Emmanuel Macron has offered to share its nuclear weapons umbrella with European neighbours.

Fearing Russian manoeuvres any time, countries geographically close to Russia are taking no chances. Poland is spending 4.7 per cent of its GDP on defence. Sweden and Finland joined the Western military alliance NATO in the past two years.

Reasons for such planning in Europe include tough talking by Russia which frequently warns European countries against deploying their defence forces in support of Ukraine or supplying it armaments. This has spelt unending insecurity for Europe.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly told UK and European countries to contribute more to the NATO defence budgets and not depend on the US to bail them out in case of Russian threats. Europe feels it is exposed to all danger and must be ready for all action.

Mr Trump has been making efforts to find a solution to the Ukraine war ever since he was elected to the US Presidency for a second term. Experts do not see much result of these efforts as yet.

At his media interaction with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Wednesday, Mr Trump repeated he was working with Russia and Ukraine to end their war.

He sent his special envoy, Mr Steve Witcoff, to Moscow a number of times to meet Mr Putin and find a basis on which Russia could agree for a ceasefire. Mr Trump hosted Mr Zelenskyy at the White House and impressed upon him the seriousness of the situation and the need for an early end of the war.  

When Russian and Ukrainian teams met at Istanbul in Turkiye for talks, and agreed only on an exchange of prisoners of war, Mr Trump, on a tour of the Middle East, said nothing would happen until he and Mr Putin met.

But this was not to be and he had only a two-hour talk with the Russian leader on phone on 19th May. His conclusion from the phone talk was Russia and Ukraine could themselves initiate talks to end the war. The Vatican was ready to host the negotiations. For Europe, it was bad news, just as it was for Ukraine.

Along with Mr Trump, leaders of major European countries, the United Kingdom and the European Union have urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree for a ceasefire, or else face fresh sanctions.

UK, France, Germany and Poland leaders met Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy together at Kyiv. Since then, the EU has imposed some new sanctions on Russia, after getting no response.

In Gaza two million people were facing starvation on Wednesday. A UN report said earlier that 14,000 babies could die in the region in 48 hours if food aid was not allowed to reach the strip of land.

Only a few trucks were allowed to move towards Gaza and even they were waiting endlessly to enter the Gaza side of the territory.

The human wars and the human tragedy they have unveiled in the last two to three years, has caused a sudden burst of anger and activity now. Tension is rising even among Israel’s friendly nations as Israel’s response to the Hamas attack does not seem to end.

Israel has been pounding Gaza with bombs and missiles ever since Gaza ruling group Hamas attacked Israel on 7th October, 2023. Gaza is seen in television pictures as virtually destroyed. It has no working hospital and its food supplies are almost finished.

On his Middle East tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates few days back, the US President expressed concern over distress reports from Gaza and possible starvation of children.

United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer followed up and called the situation intolerable and said humanitarian aid needs to get in at pace. Britain has since suspended talks on a trade deal with Israel.

UK summoned the country's ambassador as reports came that Israel was about to launch a fresh military operation. The UK government said there was no justification for military escalation in Gaza.

The European Union (EU), the biggest trading partner of Israel, said it is reviewing its association agreement with Israel, which governs its political and economic relationship.

On 19th May, leaders of Canada, UK and France issued a strongly-worded joint statement to warn Israel on the situation in Gaza and the West Bank. “We strongly oppose the expansion of Israel’s military operations in Gaza. The level of human suffering in Gaza is intolerable,” the leaders said.

Known allies of Israel, these leaders said “We call on the Israeli Government to stop its military operations in Gaza and immediately allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. This must include engaging with the UN to ensure a return to delivery of aid in line with humanitarian principles.”

Addressing the Gaza rulers, the leaders said “We call on Hamas to release immediately the remaining hostages they have so cruelly held since 7 October 2023.”

The Israeli Government’s denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population is unacceptable and risks breaching International Humanitarian Law, the three leaders said.

The leaders took strong exception to Israel’s plan to force a relocation of Gaza’s population. “We will not stand by while the Netanyahu Government pursues these egregious actions,” they said.

In strong warnings, the leaders said “If Israel does not cease the renewed military offensive and lift its restrictions on humanitarian aid, we will take further concrete actions in response.”