India & The New World

 

The New World: India Waits for Space

Deepak Razdan

30 March, 2025"

The US, Canada and Europe have been favourite destinations for Indians for trade, tourism, education and emigration. The US is currently cleansing its society of illegal immigrants in all parts of the country, and Indians touring the US for any reason run the risk of getting clubbed with them because of their appearance, and face rough police action.

Canada is currently in a state of great insecurity. The US has given it economic insecurity by imposing high tariffs on its goods. The Canadian industry is suffering and job-losses are imminent. Canadians fear for their loss of sovereignty also as US President Donald Trump threatened to make Canada the 51st State of the US. Canada will welcome any tourists, trade visits by foreigners and even students because they bring money to the country.

But right now the Canadians are concentrating on their defence and on expanding their security forces, should their sovereignty be really challenged. Canada will also be worried about the quality of immigrants, like the US, and will take minute care to keep out of its borders people who are even remotely considered capable of creating law and order situations.

Europe is getting together as never before. It is as much concerned about a good ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war, as also about its own security. Ukraine is like a buffer zone between Russia and Europe. Over 30 countries including the UK, Germany and France gathered at Paris on last Friday and assured Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the Reassurance Force they planned to raise to ensure the inviolability of the ceasefire, if it is arrived at to pause the three-year old war.

There is no bar on students, tourists, immigrants or businessmen in Europe, although the region imposes conditions of language, but welcoming foreigners is certainly not on its mind at present.

India and Indians dreaming of Western destinations for profit or leisure have to wait for a more welcoming time. The US is yet to unfold its 2nd April agenda of trade tariffs. These may cover the entire world, including India, although Indian and US trade officials have held four-day talks ending 29 March, 2025.

Further, things have to cool down in the US regarding foreigners who are now perceived among those who pose threats to law and order. Several flights for deportation of Indians have taken place. More deportations are likely. There are instances of Indian students self-deporting themselves from the US.

Mr Trump’s main concern is America First. America is for Americans; the others must wait. These others take American jobs, benefit from universities, enjoy American hospitality, and have of late, not shown as much respect for the American laws as they should have.

Canada has initiated talks with the US. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had a telephonic conversation with Mr Trump. India too has begun talks on trade with the US. Europe is as much looking within as much towards the US. Whatever ceasefire is reached between Ukraine and Russia will be meaningless without the US guarantee.

If Canadian and European products don’t find acceptance in the US after the high tariffs, will it mean closure of some production facilities in Canada and Europe. Will it also mean cheaper Indian products find market in the US? Only after some time, the picture will be clear.

As stated in an earlier blog, this is a testing time for Indian diplomacy and how it can protect India’s international trade. Happy trade relations will promote happy people-to-people relations also. The Indian government has been on the job for quite some time. The Commerce Ministry on Saturday evening summed up the Indo-US talks that the two countries had “broadly come to an understanding on the next steps towards a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), with the goal to finalize its first tranche by fall 2025.”

The talks were held to realize “the shared objective of promoting growth that ensures fairness, national security and job creation.” The government said that sectoral expert level engagements under the BTA will start virtually in the coming weeks and pave the path for an early negotiating round in person.

Indicating that the talks were on the right direction, the government said there was “a productive exchange of views on deepening bilateral cooperation in priority areas including increasing market access, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers and deepening supply chain integration in a mutually beneficial manner.”

Speaking on “Diplomacy in the Age of Disruptions” at a business awards event in Mumbai on 22 March, 2025, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said “it has never been more important to read the geo-political tea leaves right, because today, they fundamentally impinge both on our opportunities and challenges.”

After decades of hearing the virtues of globalization, he said, today the world is grappling with the reality of industrial policies, export controls and tariff wars. Like any other domain, business also faces challenges of a world in churn. To some extent, even in disarray, he said. India’s foreign policy has taken many initiatives to help Indian businesses, he said.

In the current polarized era, India is among the few that can simultaneously engage Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Iran, the democratic West and the Global South, and the BRICS and QUAD. “We have initiated or joined more than 40 different groupings devoted to specific agendas – from renewables and biofuels to disaster resilience and connectivity,” the Minister said.

The government has been working on Trade Agreements which are helpful during uncertain conditions in global economic engagement. Currently, India is engaged in three particularly important negotiations – Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the European Union and the United Kingdom and a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States. Negotiations were launched a week ago with New Zealand as well, the Minister disclosed.

The global market place was always a competitive one, he said, but the recent trend was accentuated by Governments all over the world stepping out more vigorously in support of businesses. “We cannot and should not be otherwise. You would all agree that Indian Embassies today are far more active than before in the pursuit of our commercial interests. They inform, advise and facilitate wherever possible to ensure that our businesses do well,” Mr Jaishankar said.

So, the work is on to save the situation. The international scenario is confusing due to the coming US tariffs and Europe’s worries for a stable ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war. As Indians wait for the government’s numerous diplomatic and trade initiatives to show results, India waits patiently like the rest of the world for what the US decides.